As of May 29, 2025, Genuine Parts Co has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $342.72 per share. With the current market price at $125.94, this represents a potential upside of 172.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $271.08 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $342.72 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 115.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 172.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.6% - 7.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $23487 million in 12-2024 to $36977 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 23487 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 23821 | 1% |
| 12-2026 | 25133 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 25681 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 26786 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 28894 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 30074 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 32128 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 32770 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 34715 | 6% |
| 12-2034 | 36977 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 4% in 12-2024 to 8% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 904 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 1125 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 1423 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 1691 | 7% |
| 12-2028 | 2005 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 2418 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 2517 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 2689 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 2743 | 8% |
| 12-2033 | 2905 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 3095 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $368 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 418 |
| 12-2026 | 451 |
| 12-2027 | 470 |
| 12-2028 | 459 |
| 12-2029 | 444 |
| 12-2030 | 465 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 35 |
| Days Inventory | 121 |
| Days Payables | 140 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 1510 | 278 | 304 | (185) | 1112 |
| 2026 | 2447 | 469 | 428 | 175 | 1374 |
| 2027 | 2824 | 557 | 437 | 97 | 1733 |
| 2028 | 3235 | 661 | 456 | 34 | 2084 |
| 2029 | 3778 | 797 | 492 | 183 | 2306 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 271.08 | 115.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 342.72 | 172.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 178.78 | 42.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 244.20 | 93.9% |
Is Genuine Parts Co (GPC) a buy or a sell? Genuine Parts Co is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Genuine Parts Co (GPC) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 172.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $125.94.