As of April 1, 2026, Alphabet Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $415.49 per share. With the current market price at $287.56, this represents a potential upside of 44.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $342.81 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $415.49 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 19.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 44.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 8.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $402836 million in 12-2025 to $811432 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 402836 | 15% |
| 12-2026 | 423100 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 448315 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 484234 | 8% |
| 12-2029 | 535112 | 11% |
| 12-2030 | 582011 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 612970 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 660893 | 8% |
| 12-2033 | 711289 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 746853 | 5% |
| 12-2035 | 811432 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 33% in 12-2025 to 43% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 132170 | 33% |
| 12-2026 | 150476 | 36% |
| 12-2027 | 166817 | 37% |
| 12-2028 | 187747 | 39% |
| 12-2029 | 215417 | 40% |
| 12-2030 | 242503 | 42% |
| 12-2031 | 257045 | 42% |
| 12-2032 | 278894 | 42% |
| 12-2033 | 302029 | 42% |
| 12-2034 | 319072 | 43% |
| 12-2035 | 348749 | 43% |
with a 5-year average of $46472 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 14% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2026 | 53204 |
| 12-2027 | 59262 |
| 12-2028 | 66157 |
| 12-2029 | 70397 |
| 12-2030 | 68147 |
| 12-2031 | 73380 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 56 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 23 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 199020 | 24875 | 58301 | 4357 | 111487 |
| 2027 | 222361 | 27577 | 61776 | 3196 | 129813 |
| 2028 | 251139 | 31037 | 66725 | 5297 | 148080 |
| 2029 | 284071 | 35611 | 73736 | 7461 | 167263 |
| 2030 | 310112 | 40089 | 80198 | 6687 | 183137 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 342.81 | 19.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 415.49 | 44.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 152.35 | -47.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 211.72 | -26.4% |
Is Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) a buy or a sell? Alphabet Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 44.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $287.56.