As of May 22, 2025, Go-Ahead Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $134.17 per share. With the current market price at $0.00, this represents a potential upside of -91.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $134.17 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -21.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -91.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.6% - 7.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $4058 million in 07-2021 to $1824 million by 07-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately -7.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 07-2021 | 4058 | 4% |
| 07-2022 | 3295 | -19% |
| 07-2023 | 1434 | -56% |
| 07-2024 | 1463 | 2% |
| 07-2025 | 1504 | 3% |
| 07-2026 | 1534 | 2% |
| 07-2027 | 1564 | 2% |
| 07-2028 | 1608 | 3% |
| 07-2029 | 1667 | 4% |
| 07-2030 | 1788 | 7% |
| 07-2031 | 1824 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -1% in 07-2021 to 0% by 07-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 07-2021 | (41) | -1% |
| 07-2022 | (4) | 0% |
| 07-2023 | (2) | 0% |
| 07-2024 | (2) | 0% |
| 07-2025 | (2) | 0% |
| 07-2026 | (2) | 0% |
| 07-2027 | (2) | 0% |
| 07-2028 | (2) | 0% |
| 07-2029 | (2) | 0% |
| 07-2030 | (2) | 0% |
| 07-2031 | (2) | 0% |
with a 5-year average of $109 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 07-2022 | 99 |
| 07-2023 | 78 |
| 07-2024 | 67 |
| 07-2025 | 58 |
| 07-2026 | 55 |
| 07-2027 | 45 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 15 |
| Days Inventory | 26 |
| Days Payables | 185 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2022 | 54 | (1) | 49 | (19) | 24 |
| 2023 | 82 | (1) | 43 | (25) | 65 |
| 2024 | 71 | (1) | 44 | 6 | 22 |
| 2025 | 62 | (1) | 45 | (2) | 20 |
| 2026 | 59 | (1) | 46 | 0 | 14 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -21.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 134.17 | -91.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 355.72 | +Inf% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 263.87 | +Inf% |
Is Go-Ahead Group PLC (GOG.L) a buy or a sell? Go-Ahead Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Go-Ahead Group PLC (GOG.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of -91.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $0.00.