As of May 22, 2025, Genius Brands International Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $3.24, this represents a potential upside of -3104.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -2678.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -3104.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.5% - 6.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $62 million in 12-2022 to $220 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 62 | 691% |
| 12-2023 | 85 | 36% |
| 12-2024 | 98 | 16% |
| 12-2025 | 111 | 13% |
| 12-2026 | 125 | 13% |
| 12-2027 | 144 | 14% |
| 12-2028 | 157 | 10% |
| 12-2029 | 173 | 10% |
| 12-2030 | 188 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 205 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 220 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -71% in 12-2022 to -37% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | (45) | -71% |
| 12-2023 | (42) | -49% |
| 12-2024 | (45) | -46% |
| 12-2025 | (48) | -44% |
| 12-2026 | (52) | -41% |
| 12-2027 | (56) | -39% |
| 12-2028 | (61) | -39% |
| 12-2029 | (66) | -38% |
| 12-2030 | (71) | -38% |
| 12-2031 | (76) | -37% |
| 12-2032 | (81) | -37% |
. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 1 |
| 12-2024 | 1 |
| 12-2025 | 1 |
| 12-2026 | 1 |
| 12-2027 | 1 |
| 12-2028 | 1 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 233 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 113 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | (53) | (15) | 1 | 30 | (69) |
| 2024 | (57) | (17) | 1 | 6 | (48) |
| 2025 | (61) | (18) | 1 | (6) | (38) |
| 2026 | (65) | (19) | 1 | 15 | (62) |
| 2027 | (69) | (21) | 2 | 7 | (57) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -2678.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -3104.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Genius Brands International Inc (GNUS) a buy or a sell? Genius Brands International Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Genius Brands International Inc (GNUS) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -3104.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $3.24.