As of May 22, 2025, Golden Nugget Online Gaming Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $5.78, this represents a potential upside of -1123.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -780.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -1123.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.1% - 8.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $128 million in 12-2021 to $1206 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 25.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 128 | 41% |
| 12-2022 | 214 | 67% |
| 12-2023 | 315 | 47% |
| 12-2024 | 401 | 27% |
| 12-2025 | 506 | 26% |
| 12-2026 | 610 | 21% |
| 12-2027 | 721 | 18% |
| 12-2028 | 840 | 16% |
| 12-2029 | 957 | 14% |
| 12-2030 | 1074 | 12% |
| 12-2031 | 1206 | 12% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 45% in 12-2021 to 40% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 58 | 45% |
| 12-2022 | 69 | 32% |
| 12-2023 | 107 | 34% |
| 12-2024 | 142 | 35% |
| 12-2025 | 187 | 37% |
| 12-2026 | 234 | 38% |
| 12-2027 | 279 | 39% |
| 12-2028 | 327 | 39% |
| 12-2029 | 375 | 39% |
| 12-2030 | 424 | 39% |
| 12-2031 | 479 | 40% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 0 |
| 12-2023 | 1 |
| 12-2024 | 1 |
| 12-2025 | 2 |
| 12-2026 | 2 |
| 12-2027 | 2 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 20 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 73 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | (45) | 26 | 1 | (0) | (72) |
| 2023 | (59) | 40 | 1 | (5) | (95) |
| 2024 | (67) | 53 | 2 | (0) | (121) |
| 2025 | (74) | 69 | 2 | (0) | (145) |
| 2026 | (77) | 87 | 3 | (1) | (166) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -780.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1123.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Golden Nugget Online Gaming Inc (GNOG) a buy or a sell? Golden Nugget Online Gaming Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Golden Nugget Online Gaming Inc (GNOG) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -1123.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $5.78.