As of May 27, 2025, Greencore Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $338.29 per share. With the current market price at $219.50, this represents a potential upside of 54.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $295.01 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $338.29 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 34.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 54.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.9% - 8.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1807 million in 09-2024 to $2941 million by 09-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2024 | 1807 | 6% |
| 09-2025 | 1924 | 6% |
| 09-2026 | 2084 | 8% |
| 09-2027 | 2167 | 4% |
| 09-2028 | 2262 | 4% |
| 09-2029 | 2414 | 7% |
| 09-2030 | 2462 | 2% |
| 09-2031 | 2518 | 2% |
| 09-2032 | 2705 | 7% |
| 09-2033 | 2759 | 2% |
| 09-2034 | 2941 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 09-2024 to 3% by 09-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2024 | 46 | 3% |
| 09-2025 | 53 | 3% |
| 09-2026 | 58 | 3% |
| 09-2027 | 60 | 3% |
| 09-2028 | 62 | 3% |
| 09-2029 | 67 | 3% |
| 09-2030 | 68 | 3% |
| 09-2031 | 70 | 3% |
| 09-2032 | 75 | 3% |
| 09-2033 | 76 | 3% |
| 09-2034 | 81 | 3% |
with a 5-year average of $42 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 09-2025 | 44 |
| 09-2026 | 44 |
| 09-2027 | 45 |
| 09-2028 | 49 |
| 09-2029 | 54 |
| 09-2030 | 57 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 35 |
| Days Inventory | 20 |
| Days Payables | 88 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 66 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 35 |
| 2026 | 140 | 13 | 52 | (8) | 82 |
| 2027 | 145 | 14 | 54 | (2) | 78 |
| 2028 | 153 | 15 | 57 | (2) | 84 |
| 2029 | 166 | 15 | 60 | (5) | 95 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 295.01 | 34.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 338.29 | 54.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 228.33 | 4.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 275.94 | 25.7% |
Is Greencore Group PLC (GNC.L) a buy or a sell? Greencore Group PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Greencore Group PLC (GNC.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 54.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $219.50.