What is GLW's Intrinsic value?

Corning Inc (GLW) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 25, 2025, Corning Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $7.42 to $68.06 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $68.06 +40.7%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $46.58 -3.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $49.86 +3.1%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $9.57 -80.2%
Earnings Power Value $7.42 -84.7%

Is Corning Inc (GLW) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $48.36, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Corning Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 1 1.22
Cost of equity 8.4% 11.7%
Cost of debt 4.0% 5.6%
Tax rate 20.5% 21.5%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.18 0.18
After-tax WACC 7.6% 10.5%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.1% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $13,118 (FY12-2024) to $28,878 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 5% to 19%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 11% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $47 $43,608M 82.0%
10-Year Growth $68 $61,008M 68.2%
5-Year EBITDA $53 $48,788M 83.9%
10-Year EBITDA $71 $63,405M 69.4%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 217.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 10.1%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $49.86 (3.1% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 11.7% (Low) to 8.4% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $5 to $15
  • Selected fair value: $9.57 (-80.2% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $1,053M
Discount Rate (WACC) 10.5% - 7.6%
Enterprise Value $9,983M - $13,798M
Net Debt $5,878M
Equity Value $4,105M - $7,920M
Outstanding Shares 810M
Fair Value $5 - $10
Selected Fair Value $7.42

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $39172M
Enterprise Value $45050M
Trailing P/E 86.28
Forward P/E 32.75
Trailing EV/EBITDA 11.00
Current Dividend Yield 251.46%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 5.80%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.18

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $20.42
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $11.65
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $9.97
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $1.44
Earnings Power Value 10% $0.74
Weighted Average 100% $44.21

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Corning Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $44.21, which is approximately 8.6% below the current market price of $48.36.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (5% to 19% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.18)
  • Historical dividend growth of 5.80%

Given these factors, we believe Corning Inc is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.