As of June 12, 2025, ContourGlobal PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $71.78 to $242.56 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $242.56 | -3.4% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $141.40 | -43.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $126.66 | -49.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $220.07 | -12.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $71.78 | -71.4% |
Is ContourGlobal PLC (GLO.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $251.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate ContourGlobal PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.84 | 1 |
| Cost of equity | 9.0% | 12.0% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 7.0% |
| Tax rate | 19.0% | 19.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1.89 | 1.89 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.7% | 7.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $191 | $4,623M | 79.8% |
| 10-Year Growth | $328 | $5,521M | 66.3% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $(1,234) | $2,989M | 68.8% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $78 | $3,880M | 52.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $265M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.8% - 5.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $3,382M - $4,628M |
| Net Debt | $3,368M |
| Equity Value | $14M - $1,260M |
| Outstanding Shares | 7M |
| Fair Value | $2 - $192 |
| Selected Fair Value | $71.78 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1647M |
| Enterprise Value | $4137M |
| Trailing P/E | 12.21 |
| Forward P/E | 21.32 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 6.20 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 539.13% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 10.97% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.89 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $72.77 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $35.35 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $25.33 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $33.01 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $7.18 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $173.64 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, ContourGlobal PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $173.64, which is approximately 30.8% below the current market price of $251.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe ContourGlobal PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.