As of May 24, 2025, Golden Leaf Holdings Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $1.39, this represents a potential upside of -627.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -569.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -627.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.7% - 8.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $22 million in 12-2020 to $80 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 22 | 39% |
| 12-2021 | 23 | 5% |
| 12-2022 | 27 | 18% |
| 12-2023 | 32 | 19% |
| 12-2024 | 37 | 14% |
| 12-2025 | 42 | 15% |
| 12-2026 | 49 | 15% |
| 12-2027 | 56 | 14% |
| 12-2028 | 62 | 12% |
| 12-2029 | 70 | 13% |
| 12-2030 | 80 | 14% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -46% in 12-2020 to -23% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | (10) | -46% |
| 12-2021 | (9) | -37% |
| 12-2022 | (9) | -34% |
| 12-2023 | (10) | -31% |
| 12-2024 | (10) | -28% |
| 12-2025 | (11) | -26% |
| 12-2026 | (12) | -25% |
| 12-2027 | (14) | -24% |
| 12-2028 | (15) | -24% |
| 12-2029 | (17) | -23% |
| 12-2030 | (18) | -23% |
with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 12% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 2 |
| 12-2022 | 2 |
| 12-2023 | 2 |
| 12-2024 | 3 |
| 12-2025 | 4 |
| 12-2026 | 5 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 7 |
| Days Inventory | 86 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | (5) | (0) | 3 | 1 | (9) |
| 2022 | (5) | (0) | 3 | 0 | (8) |
| 2023 | (5) | (0) | 4 | 0 | (9) |
| 2024 | (4) | (0) | 5 | 1 | (9) |
| 2025 | (3) | (0) | 5 | 0 | (8) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -569.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -627.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Golden Leaf Holdings Ltd (GLH.CN) a buy or a sell? Golden Leaf Holdings Ltd is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Golden Leaf Holdings Ltd (GLH.CN) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -627.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $1.39.