What is GLGI's DCF valuation?

Greystone Logistics Inc (GLGI) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Greystone Logistics Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $1.26 per share. With the current market price at $0.55, this represents a potential upside of 129.6%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $1.27
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $1.26
Potential Upside (5-year) 130.5%
Potential Upside (10-year) 129.6%
Discount Rate (WACC) 6.6% - 8.9%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $58 million in 05-2025 to $61 million by 05-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 0.5%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
05-2025 58 6%
05-2026 46 -20%
05-2027 47 2%
05-2028 48 2%
05-2029 49 2%
05-2030 50 2%
05-2031 51 2%
05-2032 55 8%
05-2033 56 2%
05-2034 58 4%
05-2035 61 4%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from 4% in 05-2025 to 4% by 05-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
05-2025 2 4%
05-2026 2 4%
05-2027 2 4%
05-2028 2 4%
05-2029 2 4%
05-2030 2 4%
05-2031 2 4%
05-2032 2 4%
05-2033 2 4%
05-2034 3 4%
05-2035 3 4%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $5 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 8% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
05-2026 6
05-2027 5
05-2028 4
05-2029 4
05-2030 4
05-2031 4

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 30
Days Inventory 29
Days Payables 0

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
9M/2026 7 1 3 (1) 5
2027 9 1 4 0 4
2028 8 1 4 0 3
2029 8 1 4 0 3
2030 8 1 4 0 3

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 6.6% - 8.9%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 0.0% - 1.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 5.6x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 1.27 130.5%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 1.26 129.6%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 1.40 154.2%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 1.45 163.9%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $43M
  • 10-Year Model: $43M

Investment Conclusion

Is Greystone Logistics Inc (GLGI) a buy or a sell? Greystone Logistics Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Greystone Logistics Inc (GLGI) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 129.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Steady revenue growth (0.5% CAGR)

Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $0.55.