As of May 28, 2025, Glencore PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $450.77 to $1070.65 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $1070.65 | +290.2% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $699.32 | +154.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $450.77 | +64.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $489.33 | +78.3% |
Is Glencore PLC (GLEN.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $274.40, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Glencore PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.96 | 1.41 |
| Cost of equity | 9.7% | 14.9% |
| Cost of debt | 4.9% | 9.2% |
| Tax rate | 35.6% | 40.9% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.6% | 10.5% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $947 | $147,958M | 80.0% |
| 10-Year Growth | $1,450 | $207,557M | 62.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $668 | $114,887M | 74.2% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $1,123 | $168,862M | 54.3% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $9,278M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.5% - 6.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $88,730M - $139,781M |
| Net Debt | $35,718M |
| Equity Value | $53,012M - $104,063M |
| Outstanding Shares | 119M |
| Fair Value | $447 - $878 |
| Selected Fair Value | $489.33 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $32529M |
| Enterprise Value | $58910M |
| Trailing P/E | 0.00 |
| Forward P/E | 20.23 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 4.90 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 365.75% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -8.31% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.88 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 35% | $321.19 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 29% | $174.83 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 24% | $90.15 |
| Earnings Power Value | 12% | $48.93 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $747.19 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Glencore PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $747.19, which is approximately 172.3% above the current market price of $274.40.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Glencore PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.