As of June 8, 2025, MJ Gleeson PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $439.45 to $1055.33 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $831.39 | +119.9% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $517.47 | +36.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $1055.33 | +179.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $439.45 | +16.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $516.47 | +36.6% |
Is MJ Gleeson PLC (GLE.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $378.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate MJ Gleeson PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.46 | 0.69 |
| Cost of equity | 6.7% | 9.8% |
| Cost of debt | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| Tax rate | 18.3% | 19.5% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.7% | 9.7% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $517 | $427M | 89.6% |
| 10-Year Growth | $831 | $675M | 73.6% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $666 | $545M | 91.8% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $897 | $727M | 75.5% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $34M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.7% - 6.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $347M - $505M |
| Net Debt | $18M |
| Equity Value | $329M - $487M |
| Outstanding Shares | 1M |
| Fair Value | $417 - $616 |
| Selected Fair Value | $516.47 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $299M |
| Enterprise Value | $317M |
| Trailing P/E | 18.10 |
| Forward P/E | 10.61 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 8.50 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 214.80% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -11.87% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.02 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $249.42 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $129.37 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $211.07 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $65.92 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $51.65 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $707.42 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, MJ Gleeson PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $707.42, which is approximately 87.1% above the current market price of $378.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe MJ Gleeson PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.