As of May 23, 2025, Galliford Try Holdings PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $436.83 to $767.81 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $470.53 | +12.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $436.83 | +4.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $444.45 | +6.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $767.81 | +83.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $549.25 | +31.1% |
Is Galliford Try Holdings PLC (GFRD.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $419.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Galliford Try Holdings PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| Cost of equity | 7.1% | 9.8% |
| Cost of debt | 4.6% | 7.2% |
| Tax rate | 9.4% | 12.6% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.8% | 9.4% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $437 | $279M | 73.3% |
| 10-Year Growth | $471 | $312M | 59.2% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $314 | $157M | 52.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $357 | $200M | 36.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $31M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.4% - 6.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $327M - $454M |
| Net Debt | $(156)M |
| Equity Value | $483M - $609M |
| Outstanding Shares | 1M |
| Fair Value | $486 - $613 |
| Selected Fair Value | $549.25 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $416M |
| Enterprise Value | $261M |
| Trailing P/E | 10.33 |
| Forward P/E | 14.32 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 3.55 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 392.53% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -11.19% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.13 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $141.16 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $109.21 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $88.89 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $115.17 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $54.92 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $509.35 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Galliford Try Holdings PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $509.35, which is approximately 21.6% above the current market price of $419.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Galliford Try Holdings PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.