What is GFHG.L's DCF valuation?

Grand Fortune High Grade Ltd (GFHG.L) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 21, 2025, Grand Fortune High Grade Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $2.75, this represents a potential upside of -397.8%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -366.6%
Potential Upside (10-year) -397.8%
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.8% - 7.0%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
04-2023 0 -
04-2024 0 5%
04-2025 0 4%
04-2026 0 4%
04-2027 0 2%
04-2028 0 9%
04-2029 0 4%
04-2030 0 6%
04-2031 0 7%
04-2032 0 8%
04-2033 0 9%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -1958% in 04-2023 to -51% by 04-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
04-2023 (0) -1958%
04-2024 (0) -31%
04-2025 (0) -32%
04-2026 (0) -33%
04-2027 (0) -34%
04-2028 (0) -37%
04-2029 (0) -38%
04-2030 (0) -40%
04-2031 (0) -43%
04-2032 (0) -47%
04-2033 (1) -51%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
04-2024 0
04-2025 0
04-2026 0
04-2027 0
04-2028 0
04-2029 0

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 0
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 0

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2024 (0) (0) 0 0 (0)
2025 (0) (0) 0 0 (0)
2026 (0) (0) 0 0 (0)
2027 (0) (0) 0 0 (0)
2028 (0) (0) 0 0 (0)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 5.8% - 7.0%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -366.6%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -397.8%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(14)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(16)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Grand Fortune High Grade Ltd (GFHG.L) a buy or a sell? Grand Fortune High Grade Ltd is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Grand Fortune High Grade Ltd (GFHG.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -397.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -1958% to -51%)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $2.75.