As of June 6, 2025, Guess? Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $15.62 to $54.80 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $17.18 | +56.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $19.17 | +74.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $22.87 | +108.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $15.62 | +42.1% |
| Earnings Power Value | $54.80 | +398.6% |
Is Guess? Inc (GES) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $10.99, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Guess? Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.67 | 0.93 |
| Cost of equity | 6.9% | 10.1% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 7.0% |
| Tax rate | 11.5% | 14.6% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.3% | 8.1% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $19 | $1,337M | 73.0% |
| 10-Year Growth | $17 | $1,234M | 51.0% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $9 | $791M | 54.3% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $12 | $959M | 36.9% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $203M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.1% - 5.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $2,521M - $3,860M |
| Net Debt | $340M |
| Equity Value | $2,181M - $3,519M |
| Outstanding Shares | 52M |
| Fair Value | $42 - $68 |
| Selected Fair Value | $54.80 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $572M |
| Enterprise Value | $912M |
| Trailing P/E | 7.78 |
| Forward P/E | 7.74 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 3.15 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 3386.88% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 85.47% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.97 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $5.15 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $4.79 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $4.57 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $2.34 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $5.48 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $22.34 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Guess? Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $22.34, which is approximately 103.3% above the current market price of $10.99.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Guess? Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.