As of April 3, 2026, Guess? Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $33.69 per share. With the current market price at $16.81, this represents a potential upside of 100.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $31.20 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $33.69 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 85.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 100.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.0% - 9.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2995 million in 02-2025 to $4226 million by 02-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 02-2025 | 2995 | 8% |
| 02-2026 | 3216 | 7% |
| 02-2027 | 3319 | 3% |
| 02-2028 | 3397 | 2% |
| 02-2029 | 3465 | 2% |
| 02-2030 | 3535 | 2% |
| 02-2031 | 3699 | 5% |
| 02-2032 | 3817 | 3% |
| 02-2033 | 3998 | 5% |
| 02-2034 | 4143 | 4% |
| 02-2035 | 4226 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 2% in 02-2025 to 2% by 02-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 02-2025 | 71 | 2% |
| 02-2026 | 76 | 2% |
| 02-2027 | 78 | 2% |
| 02-2028 | 80 | 2% |
| 02-2029 | 82 | 2% |
| 02-2030 | 84 | 2% |
| 02-2031 | 87 | 2% |
| 02-2032 | 90 | 2% |
| 02-2033 | 94 | 2% |
| 02-2034 | 98 | 2% |
| 02-2035 | 100 | 2% |
with a 5-year average of $66 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 02-2026 | 79 |
| 02-2027 | 82 |
| 02-2028 | 81 |
| 02-2029 | 83 |
| 02-2030 | 84 |
| 02-2031 | 86 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 41 |
| Days Inventory | 117 |
| Days Payables | 67 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2026 | 123 | 5 | 40 | 9 | 69 |
| 2027 | 255 | 11 | 82 | 16 | 146 |
| 2028 | 258 | 11 | 84 | 26 | 137 |
| 2029 | 263 | 11 | 85 | 6 | 160 |
| 2030 | 267 | 11 | 87 | 14 | 155 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 31.20 | 85.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 33.69 | 100.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 22.32 | 32.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 27.69 | 64.7% |
Is Guess? Inc (GES) a buy or a sell? Guess? Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Guess? Inc (GES) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 100.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $16.81.