As of May 23, 2025, Genel Energy PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $53.70, this represents a potential upside of -640.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -686.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -640.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.8% - 8.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $75 million in 12-2024 to $107 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 75 | 12% |
| 12-2025 | 79 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 84 | 7% |
| 12-2027 | 86 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 88 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 90 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 92 | 3% |
| 12-2031 | 97 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 99 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 105 | 6% |
| 12-2034 | 107 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -83% in 12-2024 to -58% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (62) | -83% |
| 12-2025 | (62) | -78% |
| 12-2026 | (62) | -74% |
| 12-2027 | (60) | -70% |
| 12-2028 | (58) | -66% |
| 12-2029 | (56) | -62% |
| 12-2030 | (57) | -61% |
| 12-2031 | (59) | -60% |
| 12-2032 | (59) | -60% |
| 12-2033 | (62) | -59% |
| 12-2034 | (63) | -58% |
with a 5-year average of $99 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 57% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 86 |
| 12-2026 | 73 |
| 12-2027 | 53 |
| 12-2028 | 43 |
| 12-2029 | 49 |
| 12-2030 | 50 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 110 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 27 | (0) | 45 | (0) | (18) |
| 2026 | 13 | (0) | 48 | 2 | (37) |
| 2027 | (4) | (0) | 49 | 1 | (53) |
| 2028 | (12) | (0) | 50 | 0 | (62) |
| 2029 | (4) | (0) | 51 | 1 | (56) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -686.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -640.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Genel Energy PLC (GENL.L) a buy or a sell? Genel Energy PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Genel Energy PLC (GENL.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -640.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $53.70.