As of May 29, 2025, Goodfellow Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $13.09 per share. With the current market price at $12.40, this represents a potential upside of 5.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $10.98 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $13.09 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -11.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 5.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.6% - 10.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $510 million in 11-2024 to $669 million by 11-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2024 | 510 | 1% |
| 11-2025 | 535 | 5% |
| 11-2026 | 545 | 2% |
| 11-2027 | 556 | 2% |
| 11-2028 | 584 | 5% |
| 11-2029 | 596 | 2% |
| 11-2030 | 607 | 2% |
| 11-2031 | 630 | 4% |
| 11-2032 | 643 | 2% |
| 11-2033 | 656 | 2% |
| 11-2034 | 669 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 11-2024 to 3% by 11-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2024 | 13 | 3% |
| 11-2025 | 14 | 3% |
| 11-2026 | 14 | 3% |
| 11-2027 | 14 | 3% |
| 11-2028 | 15 | 3% |
| 11-2029 | 15 | 3% |
| 11-2030 | 16 | 3% |
| 11-2031 | 16 | 3% |
| 11-2032 | 17 | 3% |
| 11-2033 | 17 | 3% |
| 11-2034 | 17 | 3% |
with a 5-year average of $5 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 11-2025 | 6 |
| 11-2026 | 7 |
| 11-2027 | 7 |
| 11-2028 | 8 |
| 11-2029 | 6 |
| 11-2030 | 6 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 38 |
| Days Inventory | 99 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 20 | 4 | 4 | (16) | 28 |
| 2026 | 28 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 7 |
| 2027 | 29 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 8 |
| 2028 | 30 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 16 |
| 2029 | 29 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 11 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 10.98 | -11.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 13.09 | 5.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 16.57 | 33.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 16.01 | 29.1% |
Is Goodfellow Inc (GDL.TO) a buy or a sell? Goodfellow Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Goodfellow Inc (GDL.TO) appears to be slightly undervalued with upside potential of 5.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold with potential to accumulate at the current market price of $12.40.