As of May 22, 2025, Great Canadian Gaming Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $44.98, this represents a potential upside of -170.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -116.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -170.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.4% - 7.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $442 million in 12-2020 to $364 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately -1.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 442 | 67% |
| 12-2021 | 193 | -56% |
| 12-2022 | 204 | 6% |
| 12-2023 | 220 | 8% |
| 12-2024 | 245 | 11% |
| 12-2025 | 269 | 10% |
| 12-2026 | 295 | 10% |
| 12-2027 | 311 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 321 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 341 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 364 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -23% in 12-2020 to -23% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | (102) | -23% |
| 12-2021 | (44) | -23% |
| 12-2022 | (47) | -23% |
| 12-2023 | (51) | -23% |
| 12-2024 | (56) | -23% |
| 12-2025 | (62) | -23% |
| 12-2026 | (68) | -23% |
| 12-2027 | (72) | -23% |
| 12-2028 | (74) | -23% |
| 12-2029 | (79) | -23% |
| 12-2030 | (84) | -23% |
with a 5-year average of $200 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 26% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 202 |
| 12-2022 | 203 |
| 12-2023 | 175 |
| 12-2024 | 107 |
| 12-2025 | 59 |
| 12-2026 | 65 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 8 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2021 | 94 | (6) | 25 | (6) | 81 |
| 2022 | 188 | (13) | 54 | 1 | 147 |
| 2023 | 159 | (14) | 58 | 1 | 114 |
| 2024 | 89 | (16) | 64 | (0) | 41 |
| 2025 | 40 | (17) | 70 | 1 | (14) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -116.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -170.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Great Canadian Gaming Corp (GC.TO) a buy or a sell? Great Canadian Gaming Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Great Canadian Gaming Corp (GC.TO) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -170.3%.
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $44.98.