As of May 28, 2025, Carlo Gavazzi Holding AG's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $231.53 to $824.33 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $685.07 | +234.2% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $625.26 | +205.0% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $516.91 | +152.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $231.53 | +12.9% |
| Earnings Power Value | $824.33 | +302.1% |
Is Carlo Gavazzi Holding AG (GAV.SW) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $205.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Carlo Gavazzi Holding AG's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 1.0% | 1.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.58 | 0.79 |
| Cost of equity | 3.9% | 6.8% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 27.0% | 27.4% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| After-tax WACC | 3.9% | 6.6% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $625 | $389M | 81.1% |
| 10-Year Growth | $685 | $432M | 65.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $397 | $227M | 67.5% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $476 | $283M | 47.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $26M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.6% - 3.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $391M - $670M |
| Net Debt | $(55)M |
| Equity Value | $446M - $726M |
| Outstanding Shares | 1M |
| Fair Value | $628 - $1,021 |
| Selected Fair Value | $824.33 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $146M |
| Enterprise Value | $90M |
| Trailing P/E | 18.24 |
| Forward P/E | 7.95 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 6.05 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 380.97% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.05 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $205.52 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $156.31 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $103.38 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $34.73 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $82.43 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $582.38 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Carlo Gavazzi Holding AG's weighted average intrinsic value is $582.38, which is approximately 184.1% above the current market price of $205.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Carlo Gavazzi Holding AG is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.