What is G's DCF valuation?

Genpact Ltd (G) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Genpact Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $76.30 per share. With the current market price at $47.78, this represents a potential upside of 59.7%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $56.61
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $76.30
Potential Upside (5-year) 18.5%
Potential Upside (10-year) 59.7%
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.9% - 7.9%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $4767 million in 12-2024 to $9615 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.3%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2024 4767 6%
12-2025 5120 7%
12-2026 5479 7%
12-2027 5873 7%
12-2028 6397 9%
12-2029 6955 9%
12-2030 7503 8%
12-2031 8205 9%
12-2032 8615 5%
12-2033 9016 5%
12-2034 9615 7%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from 11% in 12-2024 to 11% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2024 514 11%
12-2025 556 11%
12-2026 595 11%
12-2027 638 11%
12-2028 694 11%
12-2029 755 11%
12-2030 815 11%
12-2031 891 11%
12-2032 935 11%
12-2033 979 11%
12-2034 1044 11%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $67 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2025 67
12-2026 73
12-2027 81
12-2028 90
12-2029 95
12-2030 102

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 90
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 4

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
3M/2025 210 43 20 8 139
2026 902 183 87 119 513
2027 969 196 93 95 585
2028 1057 214 102 118 624
2029 1147 232 110 145 659

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 5.9% - 7.9%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 0.5% - 1.5%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 7.4x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 56.61 18.5%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 76.30 59.7%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 44.07 -7.8%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 60.61 26.9%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $10,243M
  • 10-Year Model: $13,638M

Investment Conclusion

Is Genpact Ltd (G) a buy or a sell? Genpact Ltd is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Genpact Ltd (G) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 59.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Steady revenue growth (7.3% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $47.78.