As of June 6, 2025, Forward Air Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $18.60, this represents a potential upside of -2625.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -2366.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -2625.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.0% - 16.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2474 million in 12-2024 to $6513 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 2474 | 81% |
| 12-2025 | 2643 | 7% |
| 12-2026 | 2860 | 8% |
| 12-2027 | 3190 | 12% |
| 12-2028 | 3637 | 14% |
| 12-2029 | 3965 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 4446 | 12% |
| 12-2031 | 4937 | 11% |
| 12-2032 | 5367 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 5899 | 10% |
| 12-2034 | 6513 | 10% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -45% in 12-2024 to -26% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (1,125) | -45% |
| 12-2025 | (950) | -36% |
| 12-2026 | (968) | -34% |
| 12-2027 | (1,016) | -32% |
| 12-2028 | (1,089) | -30% |
| 12-2029 | (1,115) | -28% |
| 12-2030 | (1,235) | -28% |
| 12-2031 | (1,355) | -27% |
| 12-2032 | (1,455) | -27% |
| 12-2033 | (1,579) | -27% |
| 12-2034 | (1,722) | -26% |
with a 5-year average of $34 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 40 |
| 12-2026 | 43 |
| 12-2027 | 47 |
| 12-2028 | 56 |
| 12-2029 | 64 |
| 12-2030 | 71 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 43 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 27 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | (762) | (230) | 39 | (3) | (568) |
| 2026 | (1,020) | (313) | 56 | 22 | (786) |
| 2027 | (1,054) | (328) | 62 | 42 | (830) |
| 2028 | (1,109) | (352) | 71 | 37 | (864) |
| 2029 | (1,111) | (360) | 77 | 36 | (864) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -2366.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -2625.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Forward Air Corp (FWRD) a buy or a sell? Forward Air Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Forward Air Corp (FWRD) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -2625.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $18.60.