As of June 20, 2025, Fulham Shore PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $17.57 per share. With the current market price at $14.05, this represents a potential upside of 25.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $11.93 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $17.57 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -15.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 25.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 6.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $83 million in 03-2022 to $154 million by 03-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2022 | 83 | 105% |
| 03-2023 | 91 | 10% |
| 03-2024 | 97 | 7% |
| 03-2025 | 101 | 5% |
| 03-2026 | 108 | 6% |
| 03-2027 | 118 | 10% |
| 03-2028 | 121 | 2% |
| 03-2029 | 129 | 7% |
| 03-2030 | 141 | 9% |
| 03-2031 | 148 | 5% |
| 03-2032 | 154 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 4% in 03-2022 to 3% by 03-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2022 | 4 | 4% |
| 03-2023 | 3 | 3% |
| 03-2024 | 3 | 3% |
| 03-2025 | 3 | 3% |
| 03-2026 | 3 | 3% |
| 03-2027 | 4 | 3% |
| 03-2028 | 4 | 3% |
| 03-2029 | 4 | 3% |
| 03-2030 | 4 | 3% |
| 03-2031 | 4 | 3% |
| 03-2032 | 5 | 3% |
with a 5-year average of $6 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 10% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2023 | 6 |
| 03-2024 | 7 |
| 03-2025 | 7 |
| 03-2026 | 9 |
| 03-2027 | 10 |
| 03-2028 | 11 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 8 |
| Days Inventory | 21 |
| Days Payables | 64 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2023 | 7 | 1 | 4 | (1) | 2 |
| 2024 | 15 | 2 | 9 | (1) | 4 |
| 2025 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026 | 18 | 2 | 10 | (1) | 6 |
| 2027 | 20 | 2 | 11 | (1) | 7 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 11.93 | -15.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 17.57 | 25.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 7.95 | -43.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 12.17 | -13.4% |
Is Fulham Shore PLC (FUL.L) a buy or a sell? Fulham Shore PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Fulham Shore PLC (FUL.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 25.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $14.05.