As of May 29, 2025, Fastly Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $7.31, this represents a potential upside of -821.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -724.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -821.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.8% - 8.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $544 million in 12-2024 to $1643 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 544 | 7% |
| 12-2025 | 588 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 667 | 13% |
| 12-2027 | 749 | 12% |
| 12-2028 | 865 | 16% |
| 12-2029 | 978 | 13% |
| 12-2030 | 1116 | 14% |
| 12-2031 | 1259 | 13% |
| 12-2032 | 1367 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 1495 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 1643 | 10% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -29% in 12-2024 to -17% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (158) | -29% |
| 12-2025 | (155) | -26% |
| 12-2026 | (161) | -24% |
| 12-2027 | (165) | -22% |
| 12-2028 | (174) | -20% |
| 12-2029 | (179) | -18% |
| 12-2030 | (200) | -18% |
| 12-2031 | (221) | -18% |
| 12-2032 | (235) | -17% |
| 12-2033 | (252) | -17% |
| 12-2034 | (272) | -17% |
with a 5-year average of $48 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 12% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 54 |
| 12-2026 | 60 |
| 12-2027 | 61 |
| 12-2028 | 75 |
| 12-2029 | 91 |
| 12-2030 | 103 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 80 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 8 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | (86) | (0) | 52 | 10 | (147) |
| 2026 | (116) | (0) | 79 | 19 | (214) |
| 2027 | (121) | (0) | 88 | 14 | (223) |
| 2028 | (119) | (0) | 102 | 26 | (247) |
| 2029 | (110) | (0) | 115 | 25 | (249) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -724.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -821.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Fastly Inc (FSLY) a buy or a sell? Fastly Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Fastly Inc (FSLY) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -821.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $7.31.