As of December 15, 2025, First Solar Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $306.14 per share. With the current market price at $254.80, this represents a potential upside of 20.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $260.51 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $306.14 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 2.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 20.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.4% - 11.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $4206 million in 12-2024 to $8567 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 4206 | 27% |
| 12-2025 | 4617 | 10% |
| 12-2026 | 4942 | 7% |
| 12-2027 | 5231 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 5558 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 5876 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 6449 | 10% |
| 12-2031 | 6903 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 7529 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 8074 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 8567 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 31% in 12-2024 to 39% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1292 | 31% |
| 12-2025 | 1370 | 30% |
| 12-2026 | 1574 | 32% |
| 12-2027 | 1774 | 34% |
| 12-2028 | 1994 | 36% |
| 12-2029 | 2217 | 38% |
| 12-2030 | 2456 | 38% |
| 12-2031 | 2653 | 38% |
| 12-2032 | 2920 | 39% |
| 12-2033 | 3159 | 39% |
| 12-2034 | 3381 | 39% |
with a 5-year average of $955 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 29% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 1142 |
| 12-2026 | 1323 |
| 12-2027 | 1449 |
| 12-2028 | 1497 |
| 12-2029 | 1536 |
| 12-2030 | 1643 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 77 |
| Days Inventory | 136 |
| Days Payables | 54 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2025 | 697 | 76 | 338 | (84) | 367 |
| 2026 | 3215 | 348 | 1447 | 296 | 1124 |
| 2027 | 3583 | 392 | 1532 | 102 | 1557 |
| 2028 | 3898 | 440 | 1628 | (14) | 1843 |
| 2029 | 4207 | 490 | 1721 | 135 | 1862 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 260.51 | 2.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 306.14 | 20.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 418.92 | 64.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 457.18 | 79.4% |
Is First Solar Inc (FSLR) a buy or a sell? First Solar Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, First Solar Inc (FSLR) appears to be moderately undervalued with upside potential of 20.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a buy at the current market price of $254.80.