What is FSFL.L's Intrinsic value?

Foresight Solar Fund Ltd (FSFL.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Foresight Solar Fund Ltd's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $7.40 to $306.75 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $180.56 +189.4%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $40.72 -34.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $137.15 +119.8%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $7.40 -88.1%
Earnings Power Value $306.75 +391.6%

Is Foresight Solar Fund Ltd (FSFL.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $62.40, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Foresight Solar Fund Ltd's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 1.25 1.33
Cost of equity 11.5% 14.3%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 19.0% 19.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 1 1
After-tax WACC 7.8% 9.2%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.5% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $11 (FY12-2024) to $144 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 27% to 26%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $41 $234M 81.2%
10-Year Growth $181 $1,050M 46.2%
5-Year EBITDA $101 $583M 27.2%
10-Year EBITDA $119 $691M 18.4%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 988.1%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 12.9%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.5%
  • Fair value: $137.15 (119.8% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 14.3% (Low) to 11.5% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.5% (Low) to 4.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $5 to $10
  • Selected fair value: $7.40 (-88.1% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $150M
Discount Rate (WACC) 9.2% - 7.8%
Enterprise Value $1,639M - $1,932M
Net Debt $(3)M
Equity Value $1,642M - $1,935M
Outstanding Shares 6M
Fair Value $282 - $332
Selected Fair Value $306.75

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $364M
Enterprise Value $361M
Trailing P/E 79.53
Forward P/E 13.13
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.00
Current Dividend Yield 1242.39%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 3.71%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.94

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $54.17
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $10.18
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $27.43
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $1.11
Earnings Power Value 10% $30.68
Weighted Average 100% $123.56

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Foresight Solar Fund Ltd's intrinsic value is $123.56, which is approximately 98.0% above the current market price of $62.40.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (27% to 26% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 3.71%

Given these factors, we believe Foresight Solar Fund Ltd is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.