As of June 6, 2025, Forvia SE has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $52.76 per share. With the current market price at $7.63, this represents a potential upside of 591.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $43.72 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $52.76 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 472.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 591.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.6% - 5.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $26974 million in 12-2024 to $40297 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 26974 | 1% |
| 12-2025 | 28176 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 29213 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 30301 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 31197 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 31820 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 33314 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 35270 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 37776 | 7% |
| 12-2033 | 39507 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 40297 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 0% in 12-2024 to 1% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (6) | 0% |
| 12-2025 | 176 | 1% |
| 12-2026 | 182 | 1% |
| 12-2027 | 189 | 1% |
| 12-2028 | 194 | 1% |
| 12-2029 | 198 | 1% |
| 12-2030 | 208 | 1% |
| 12-2031 | 220 | 1% |
| 12-2032 | 236 | 1% |
| 12-2033 | 246 | 1% |
| 12-2034 | 251 | 1% |
with a 5-year average of $1713 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 8% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 1938 |
| 12-2026 | 2155 |
| 12-2027 | 2211 |
| 12-2028 | 2263 |
| 12-2029 | 2358 |
| 12-2030 | 2439 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 64 |
| Days Inventory | 45 |
| Days Payables | 140 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2728 | 63 | 2204 | 454 | 6 |
| 2026 | 2974 | 66 | 2286 | (189) | 812 |
| 2027 | 3060 | 68 | 2371 | (156) | 778 |
| 2028 | 3137 | 70 | 2441 | 64 | 562 |
| 2029 | 3250 | 72 | 2490 | (78) | 767 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 43.72 | 472.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 52.76 | 591.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 9.98 | 30.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 23.28 | 205.1% |
Is Forvia SE (FRVIA.PA) a buy or a sell? Forvia SE is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Forvia SE (FRVIA.PA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 591.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $7.63.