What is FRIGO.AT's Intrinsic value?

Frigoglass SA (FRIGO.AT) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 21, 2025, Frigoglass SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.05 to $0.22 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $0.22 -48.2%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $0.05 -88.2%

Is Frigoglass SA (FRIGO.AT) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.43, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Frigoglass SA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.3% 3.8%
Equity market risk premium 8.8% 9.8%
Adjusted beta 0.83 1.33
Cost of equity 10.6% 17.3%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 4.3% 6.9%
Debt/Equity ratio 1 1
After-tax WACC 7.7% 11.0%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.3% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $384 (FY12-2021) to $673 (FY12-2031)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 0% to 2%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 6% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $0 $300M 64.1%
10-Year Growth $0 $361M 43.1%
5-Year EBITDA $0 $455M 76.3%
10-Year EBITDA $1 $491M 58.1%

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $10M
Enterprise Value $9M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 8.65
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.93

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 55% $0.07
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 45% $0.01
Weighted Average 100% $0.14

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Frigoglass SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $0.14, which is approximately 66.4% below the current market price of $0.43.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (0% to 2% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Frigoglass SA is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.