As of October 13, 2026, Fresnillo PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $1207.34 to $4855.64 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $4855.64 | +76.2% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $3838.73 | +39.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $2953.76 | +7.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $3773.29 | +36.9% |
| Earnings Power Value | $1207.34 | -56.2% |
Is Fresnillo PLC (FRES.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $2756.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Fresnillo PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.48 | 0.66 |
| Cost of equity | 6.9% | 9.6% |
| Cost of debt | 4.6% | 4.7% |
| Tax rate | 26.7% | 44.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.8% | 9.4% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $5,080 | $34,757M | 77.3% |
| 10-Year Growth | $6,426 | $44,401M | 61.7% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $2,694 | $17,655M | 55.3% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $4,007 | $27,064M | 37.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $771M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.4% - 6.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $8,199M - $11,405M |
| Net Debt | $(1,648)M |
| Equity Value | $9,847M - $13,053M |
| Outstanding Shares | 7M |
| Fair Value | $1,374 - $1,822 |
| Selected Fair Value | $1207.34 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $19749M |
| Enterprise Value | $18504M |
| Trailing P/E | 11.46 |
| Forward P/E | 12.71 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 3.15 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 363.73% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 27.76% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.03 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $1456.69 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $959.68 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $590.75 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $565.99 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $120.73 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $3693.85 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Fresnillo PLC's intrinsic value is $3693.85, which is approximately 34.0% above the current market price of $2756.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Fresnillo PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.