As of June 10, 2025, FNM SpA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.51 to $11.17 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $11.17 | +2604.1% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $8.78 | +2024.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $0.51 | +23.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $0.80 | +94.5% |
| Earnings Power Value | $5.46 | +1222.8% |
Is FNM SpA (FNM.MI) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $0.41, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate FNM SpA's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.7% | 4.2% |
| Equity market risk premium | 8.3% | 9.3% |
| Adjusted beta | 2.43 | 2.97 |
| Cost of equity | 23.8% | 32.3% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 18.9% | 24.7% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 5.26 | 5.26 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.5% | 8.0% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $9 | $4,535M | 76.0% |
| 10-Year Growth | $11 | $5,576M | 58.7% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $2 | $1,773M | 38.7% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $5 | $2,948M | 21.9% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $223M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.0% - 6.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $2,780M - $3,409M |
| Net Debt | $719M |
| Equity Value | $2,061M - $2,691M |
| Outstanding Shares | 435M |
| Fair Value | $5 - $6 |
| Selected Fair Value | $5.46 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $180M |
| Enterprise Value | $898M |
| Trailing P/E | 1.57 |
| Forward P/E | 2.05 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 2.25 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 556.75% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -1.29% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 5.26 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $3.35 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $2.19 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $0.10 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $0.12 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.55 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $6.31 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, FNM SpA's weighted average intrinsic value is $6.31, which is approximately 1428.7% above the current market price of $0.41.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe FNM SpA is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.