As of April 4, 2026, First National Financial Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $47.98, this represents a potential upside of -1843.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -1858.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -1843.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 3.3% - 17.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2217 million in 12-2024 to $1294 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately -5.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 2217 | 10% |
| 12-2025 | 892 | -60% |
| 12-2026 | 996 | 12% |
| 12-2027 | 1067 | 7% |
| 12-2028 | 1089 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 1113 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 1135 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 1199 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 1242 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 1267 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 1294 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 9% in 12-2024 to 23% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 203 | 9% |
| 12-2025 | 106 | 12% |
| 12-2026 | 144 | 14% |
| 12-2027 | 180 | 17% |
| 12-2028 | 209 | 19% |
| 12-2029 | 238 | 21% |
| 12-2030 | 248 | 22% |
| 12-2031 | 266 | 22% |
| 12-2032 | 281 | 23% |
| 12-2033 | 292 | 23% |
| 12-2034 | 303 | 23% |
with a 5-year average of $12 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 12 |
| 12-2026 | 7 |
| 12-2027 | 7 |
| 12-2028 | 7 |
| 12-2029 | 8 |
| 12-2030 | 8 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 39 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 78 | 19 | 3 | (71) | 127 |
| 2026 | 203 | 52 | 8 | 9 | 135 |
| 2027 | 252 | 65 | 8 | 9 | 170 |
| 2028 | 291 | 75 | 8 | 2 | 206 |
| 2029 | 332 | 86 | 9 | 2 | 235 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1858.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1843.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is First National Financial Corp (FN.TO) a buy or a sell? First National Financial Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, First National Financial Corp (FN.TO) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -1843.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $47.98.