What is FLTA.L's Intrinsic value?

Filta Group Holdings PLC (FLTA.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 23, 2025, Filta Group Holdings PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $47.27 to $295.28 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $295.28 +73.7%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $71.55 -57.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $108.39 -36.2%
Earnings Power Value $47.27 -72.2%

Is Filta Group Holdings PLC (FLTA.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $170.00, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Filta Group Holdings PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.9% 3.4%
Equity market risk premium 5.3% 6.3%
Adjusted beta 0.47 0.9
Cost of equity 5.4% 9.6%
Cost of debt 5.4% 16.0%
Tax rate 28.1% 38.9%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.12 0.12
After-tax WACC 5.3% 9.7%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.5% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $16 (FY12-2020) to $73 (FY12-2030)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -6% to 7%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $72 $21M 92.9%
10-Year Growth $295 $86M 84.2%
5-Year EBITDA $56 $17M 91.1%
10-Year EBITDA $139 $41M 66.7%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.5%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $108.39 (-36.2% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 9.6% (Low) to 5.4% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(37) to $(719)
  • Selected fair value: $-378.13 (-322.4% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $1M
Discount Rate (WACC) 9.7% - 5.3%
Enterprise Value $10M - $19M
Net Debt $1M
Equity Value $9M - $18M
Outstanding Shares 0M
Fair Value $33 - $62
Selected Fair Value $47.27

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $49M
Enterprise Value $50M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.05
Current Dividend Yield 59.33%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 73.95%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.12

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 35% $88.58
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 29% $17.89
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 24% $21.68
Earnings Power Value 12% $4.73
Weighted Average 100% $156.32

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Filta Group Holdings PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $156.32, which is approximately 8.0% below the current market price of $170.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-6% to 7% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.12)
  • Historical dividend growth of 73.95%

Given these factors, we believe Filta Group Holdings PLC is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.