As of June 17, 2025, Flsmidth & Co A/S has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $278.09 per share. With the current market price at $395.80, this represents a potential upside of -29.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $254.15 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $278.09 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -35.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -29.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.0% - 9.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $20187 million in 12-2024 to $25887 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 20187 | 16% |
| 12-2025 | 19199 | -5% |
| 12-2026 | 19803 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 20054 | 1% |
| 12-2028 | 21210 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 22239 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 22925 | 3% |
| 12-2031 | 23445 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 23914 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 24392 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 25887 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 5% in 12-2024 to 5% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1030 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 944 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 974 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 986 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 1043 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 1094 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 1127 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 1153 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 1176 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 1199 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 1273 | 5% |
with a 5-year average of $435 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 448 |
| 12-2026 | 475 |
| 12-2027 | 496 |
| 12-2028 | 488 |
| 12-2029 | 445 |
| 12-2030 | 461 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 125 |
| Days Inventory | 84 |
| Days Payables | 90 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 1576 | 403 | 313 | (557) | 1417 |
| 2026 | 2180 | 555 | 430 | (4) | 1199 |
| 2027 | 2222 | 562 | 435 | 356 | 870 |
| 2028 | 2314 | 594 | 460 | 267 | 993 |
| 2029 | 2360 | 623 | 483 | 322 | 932 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 254.15 | -35.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 278.09 | -29.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 279.35 | -29.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 288.16 | -27.2% |
Is Flsmidth & Co A/S (FLS.CO) a buy or a sell? Flsmidth & Co A/S is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Flsmidth & Co A/S (FLS.CO) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -29.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $395.80.