What is FLO.L's DCF valuation?

Flowtech Fluidpower PLC (FLO.L) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 5, 2025, Flowtech Fluidpower PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $58.90, this represents a potential upside of -1219.9%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -1632.4%
Potential Upside (10-year) -1219.9%
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.8% - 8.1%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $107 million in 12-2024 to $180 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.3%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2024 107 4%
12-2025 126 17%
12-2026 135 8%
12-2027 146 8%
12-2028 149 2%
12-2029 152 2%
12-2030 158 3%
12-2031 162 3%
12-2032 165 2%
12-2033 174 5%
12-2034 180 4%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -25% in 12-2024 to -8% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2024 (26) -25%
12-2025 (26) -21%
12-2026 (24) -18%
12-2027 (22) -15%
12-2028 (19) -13%
12-2029 (16) -10%
12-2030 (16) -10%
12-2031 (16) -10%
12-2032 (15) -9%
12-2033 (15) -9%
12-2034 (15) -8%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2025 2
12-2026 3
12-2027 3
12-2028 3
12-2029 3
12-2030 3

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 71
Days Inventory 161
Days Payables 70

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2025 (23) (2) 3 7 (31)
2026 (21) (2) 3 2 (24)
2027 (19) (2) 3 2 (22)
2028 (15) (1) 3 0 (17)
2029 (12) (1) 3 (0) (13)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 5.8% - 8.1%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 8.2x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -1632.4%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -1219.9%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(543)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(391)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Flowtech Fluidpower PLC (FLO.L) a buy or a sell? Flowtech Fluidpower PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Flowtech Fluidpower PLC (FLO.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -1219.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -25% to -8%)
  • Steady revenue growth (5.3% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $58.90.