As of October 15, 2025, Fjord1 ASA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $34.88 per share. With the current market price at $51.80, this represents a potential upside of -32.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $31.12 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $34.88 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -39.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -32.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.0% - 7.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $3086 million in 12-2020 to $3925 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 3086 | 16% |
| 12-2021 | 2930 | -5% |
| 12-2022 | 3052 | 4% |
| 12-2023 | 3171 | 4% |
| 12-2024 | 3235 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 3354 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 3421 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 3490 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 3646 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 3812 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 3925 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 5% in 12-2020 to 6% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 163 | 5% |
| 12-2021 | 163 | 6% |
| 12-2022 | 176 | 6% |
| 12-2023 | 190 | 6% |
| 12-2024 | 200 | 6% |
| 12-2025 | 214 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 218 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 222 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 232 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 243 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 250 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $1369 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 63% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 1664 |
| 12-2022 | 1902 |
| 12-2023 | 1923 |
| 12-2024 | 1852 |
| 12-2025 | 1991 |
| 12-2026 | 2053 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 22 |
| Days Inventory | 17 |
| Days Payables | 160 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2109 | 41 | 1853 | (150) | 365 |
| 2022 | 2374 | 44 | 1930 | 43 | 356 |
| 2023 | 2421 | 47 | 2006 | 30 | 338 |
| 2024 | 2368 | 50 | 2046 | (25) | 298 |
| 2025 | 2534 | 53 | 2121 | 18 | 341 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 31.12 | -39.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 34.88 | -32.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 124.43 | 140.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 113.33 | 118.8% |
Is Fjord1 ASA (FJORD.OL) a buy or a sell? Fjord1 ASA is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Fjord1 ASA (FJORD.OL) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -32.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $51.80.