As of June 20, 2026, Firefly AB's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $133.12 to $223.77 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $223.77 | +39.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $168.72 | +4.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $163.88 | +1.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $189.28 | +17.6% |
| Earnings Power Value | $133.12 | -17.3% |
Is Firefly AB (FIRE.ST) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $161.00, the stock appears to be moderately undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Firefly AB's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| Cost of equity | 5.2% | 7.0% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 23.9% | 24.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0 | 0 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.2% | 7.0% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $169 | $918M | 81.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $224 | $1,248M | 71.6% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $164 | $892M | 81.2% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $207 | $1,150M | 69.2% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $42M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.0% - 5.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $596M - $813M |
| Net Debt | $(94)M |
| Equity Value | $690M - $907M |
| Outstanding Shares | 6M |
| Fair Value | $115 - $151 |
| Selected Fair Value | $133.12 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $966M |
| Enterprise Value | $872M |
| Trailing P/E | 22.59 |
| Forward P/E | 22.74 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 12.20 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 329.34% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 27.21% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.00 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $67.13 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $42.18 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $32.78 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $28.39 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $13.31 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $183.79 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Firefly AB's intrinsic value is $183.79, which is approximately 14.2% above the current market price of $161.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Firefly AB is currently moderately undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.