As of April 30, 2026, Firefly AB's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $121.71 to $226.76 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $226.76 | +20.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $179.94 | -4.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $187.74 | -0.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $183.56 | -2.9% |
| Earnings Power Value | $121.71 | -35.6% |
Is Firefly AB (FIRE.ST) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $189.00, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Firefly AB's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| Cost of equity | 5.5% | 7.4% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 23.9% | 24.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0 | 0 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.5% | 7.4% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $180 | $1,000M | 84.4% |
| 10-Year Growth | $227 | $1,281M | 70.7% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $174 | $962M | 83.7% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $214 | $1,204M | 68.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $41M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.4% - 5.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $556M - $746M |
| Net Debt | $(79)M |
| Equity Value | $635M - $825M |
| Outstanding Shares | 6M |
| Fair Value | $106 - $138 |
| Selected Fair Value | $121.71 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1134M |
| Enterprise Value | $1055M |
| Trailing P/E | 23.84 |
| Forward P/E | 23.12 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 12.05 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 289.54% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 27.21% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.00 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $68.03 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $44.99 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $37.55 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $27.53 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $12.17 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $190.27 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Firefly AB's intrinsic value is $190.27, which is approximately 0.7% above the current market price of $189.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Firefly AB is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.