As of May 29, 2025, Finsbury Food Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $114.30 to $240.53 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $158.59 | +44.2% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $157.42 | +43.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $114.30 | +3.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $121.18 | +10.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $240.53 | +118.7% |
Is Finsbury Food Group PLC (FIF.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $110.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Finsbury Food Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.55 | 0.86 |
| Cost of equity | 7.3% | 11.0% |
| Cost of debt | 4.7% | 4.7% |
| Tax rate | 22.4% | 26.4% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.4% | 9.1% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $157 | $229M | 65.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $159 | $231M | 49.2% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $202 | $285M | 72.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $201 | $284M | 58.7% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $25M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.1% - 6.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $274M - $391M |
| Net Debt | $34M |
| Equity Value | $240M - $357M |
| Outstanding Shares | 1M |
| Fair Value | $193 - $288 |
| Selected Fair Value | $240.53 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $137M |
| Enterprise Value | $170M |
| Trailing P/E | 12.69 |
| Forward P/E | 10.37 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 9.65 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 236.74% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -6.78% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.33 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $47.58 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $39.35 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $22.86 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $18.18 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $24.05 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $152.02 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Finsbury Food Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $152.02, which is approximately 38.2% above the current market price of $110.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Finsbury Food Group PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.