As of May 29, 2025, Finsbury Food Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $158.59 per share. With the current market price at $110.00, this represents a potential upside of 44.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $157.42 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $158.59 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 43.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 44.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.4% - 9.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $414 million in 07-2023 to $590 million by 07-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 07-2023 | 414 | 16% |
| 07-2024 | 444 | 7% |
| 07-2025 | 448 | 1% |
| 07-2026 | 459 | 2% |
| 07-2027 | 468 | 2% |
| 07-2028 | 477 | 2% |
| 07-2029 | 487 | 2% |
| 07-2030 | 517 | 6% |
| 07-2031 | 529 | 2% |
| 07-2032 | 541 | 2% |
| 07-2033 | 590 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 07-2023 to 3% by 07-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 07-2023 | 11 | 3% |
| 07-2024 | 13 | 3% |
| 07-2025 | 13 | 3% |
| 07-2026 | 14 | 3% |
| 07-2027 | 14 | 3% |
| 07-2028 | 14 | 3% |
| 07-2029 | 14 | 3% |
| 07-2030 | 15 | 3% |
| 07-2031 | 16 | 3% |
| 07-2032 | 16 | 3% |
| 07-2033 | 18 | 3% |
with a 5-year average of $9 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 07-2024 | 9 |
| 07-2025 | 10 |
| 07-2026 | 11 |
| 07-2027 | 11 |
| 07-2028 | 12 |
| 07-2029 | 12 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 54 |
| Days Inventory | 30 |
| Days Payables | 46 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | 4 | 11 | (36) | 48 |
| 2025 | 29 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 5 |
| 2026 | 31 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 4 |
| 2027 | 31 | 4 | 12 | (8) | 22 |
| 2028 | 32 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 11 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 157.42 | 43.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 158.59 | 44.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 202.24 | 83.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 201.38 | 83.1% |
Is Finsbury Food Group PLC (FIF.L) a buy or a sell? Finsbury Food Group PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Finsbury Food Group PLC (FIF.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 44.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $110.00.