As of May 22, 2025, Fair Isaac Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $820.62 per share. With the current market price at $0.00, this represents a potential upside of -52.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $695.50 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $820.62 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -59.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -52.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.5% - 9.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1718 million in 09-2024 to $3430 million by 09-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2024 | 1718 | 13% |
| 09-2025 | 1899 | 11% |
| 09-2026 | 2055 | 8% |
| 09-2027 | 2225 | 8% |
| 09-2028 | 2389 | 7% |
| 09-2029 | 2533 | 6% |
| 09-2030 | 2704 | 7% |
| 09-2031 | 2949 | 9% |
| 09-2032 | 3088 | 5% |
| 09-2033 | 3316 | 7% |
| 09-2034 | 3430 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 30% in 09-2024 to 34% by 09-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2024 | 513 | 30% |
| 09-2025 | 582 | 31% |
| 09-2026 | 646 | 31% |
| 09-2027 | 716 | 32% |
| 09-2028 | 785 | 33% |
| 09-2029 | 849 | 34% |
| 09-2030 | 910 | 34% |
| 09-2031 | 996 | 34% |
| 09-2032 | 1047 | 34% |
| 09-2033 | 1128 | 34% |
| 09-2034 | 1171 | 34% |
with a 5-year average of $14 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 09-2025 | 14 |
| 09-2026 | 16 |
| 09-2027 | 19 |
| 09-2028 | 22 |
| 09-2029 | 22 |
| 09-2030 | 23 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 90 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 22 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 430 | 73 | 9 | 21 | 327 |
| 2026 | 951 | 163 | 20 | 46 | 723 |
| 2027 | 1052 | 180 | 22 | 37 | 813 |
| 2028 | 1152 | 198 | 23 | 40 | 890 |
| 2029 | 1240 | 214 | 25 | 37 | 965 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 695.50 | -59.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 820.62 | -52.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1139.12 | +Inf% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1239.99 | +Inf% |
Is Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) a buy or a sell? Fair Isaac Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of -52.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $0.00.