As of May 24, 2025, FireEye Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $17.27, this represents a potential upside of -147.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -162.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -147.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.9% - 9.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $941 million in 12-2020 to $833 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately -1.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 941 | 6% |
| 12-2021 | 480 | -49% |
| 12-2022 | 586 | 22% |
| 12-2023 | 707 | 21% |
| 12-2024 | 728 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 742 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 757 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 783 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 799 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 815 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 833 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -22% in 12-2020 to -12% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | (207) | -22% |
| 12-2021 | (94) | -20% |
| 12-2022 | (105) | -18% |
| 12-2023 | (116) | -16% |
| 12-2024 | (108) | -15% |
| 12-2025 | (100) | -13% |
| 12-2026 | (100) | -13% |
| 12-2027 | (101) | -13% |
| 12-2028 | (101) | -13% |
| 12-2029 | (101) | -12% |
| 12-2030 | (101) | -12% |
with a 5-year average of $41 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 38 |
| 12-2022 | 35 |
| 12-2023 | 32 |
| 12-2024 | 30 |
| 12-2025 | 32 |
| 12-2026 | 35 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 66 |
| Days Inventory | 7 |
| Days Payables | 24 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2021 | (16) | (1) | 12 | (36) | 9 |
| 2022 | (42) | (2) | 29 | 18 | (87) |
| 2023 | (49) | (2) | 35 | 20 | (102) |
| 2024 | (42) | (2) | 36 | 5 | (81) |
| 2025 | (31) | (2) | 37 | 3 | (69) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -162.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -147.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is FireEye Inc (FEYE) a buy or a sell? FireEye Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, FireEye Inc (FEYE) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -147.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $17.27.