As of June 12, 2025, FedEx Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $304.73 per share. With the current market price at $224.00, this represents a potential upside of 36.0%.
Key Metrics | Value |
---|---|
DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $303.83 |
DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $304.73 |
Potential Upside (5-year) | 35.6% |
Potential Upside (10-year) | 36.0% |
Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.7% - 8.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $87693 million in 05-2024 to $114648 million by 05-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.7%.
Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
---|---|---|
05-2024 | 87693 | 3% |
05-2025 | 87711 | 0% |
05-2026 | 90981 | 4% |
05-2027 | 93637 | 3% |
05-2028 | 95509 | 2% |
05-2029 | 97419 | 2% |
05-2030 | 99368 | 2% |
05-2031 | 103105 | 4% |
05-2032 | 107524 | 4% |
05-2033 | 110221 | 3% |
05-2034 | 114648 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 5% in 05-2024 to 5% by 05-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
---|---|---|
05-2024 | 4331 | 5% |
05-2025 | 4332 | 5% |
05-2026 | 4493 | 5% |
05-2027 | 4625 | 5% |
05-2028 | 4717 | 5% |
05-2029 | 4811 | 5% |
05-2030 | 4908 | 5% |
05-2031 | 5092 | 5% |
05-2032 | 5310 | 5% |
05-2033 | 5444 | 5% |
05-2034 | 5662 | 5% |
with a 5-year average of $5973 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 7% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
---|---|
05-2025 | 6044 |
05-2026 | 6158 |
05-2027 | 6134 |
05-2028 | 6254 |
05-2029 | 6601 |
05-2030 | 6766 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
Components | Average Days |
---|---|
Days Receivables | 43 |
Days Inventory | 8 |
Days Payables | 49 |
Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
3M/2025 | 3064 | 376 | 1555 | 3 | 1129 |
2026 | 12602 | 1561 | 6454 | 64 | 4522 |
2027 | 12766 | 1607 | 6642 | 366 | 4150 |
2028 | 13019 | 1639 | 6775 | 137 | 4468 |
2029 | 13501 | 1672 | 6911 | 127 | 4791 |
Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
---|---|---|
5-Year DCF (Growth) | 303.83 | 35.6% |
10-Year DCF (Growth) | 304.73 | 36.0% |
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 306.53 | 36.8% |
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 310.22 | 38.5% |
Is FedEx Corp (FDX) a buy or a sell? FedEx Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, FedEx Corp (FDX) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 36.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $224.00.