As of February 8, 2026, FedEx Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $288.47 per share. With the current market price at $369.23, this represents a potential upside of -21.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $284.40 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $288.47 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -23.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -21.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.2% - 9.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $87926 million in 05-2025 to $120059 million by 05-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 05-2025 | 87926 | 0% |
| 05-2026 | 92294 | 5% |
| 05-2027 | 94140 | 2% |
| 05-2028 | 96294 | 2% |
| 05-2029 | 98583 | 2% |
| 05-2030 | 100555 | 2% |
| 05-2031 | 106770 | 6% |
| 05-2032 | 108998 | 2% |
| 05-2033 | 111177 | 2% |
| 05-2034 | 113401 | 2% |
| 05-2035 | 120059 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 5% in 05-2025 to 5% by 05-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 05-2025 | 4092 | 5% |
| 05-2026 | 4238 | 5% |
| 05-2027 | 4323 | 5% |
| 05-2028 | 4422 | 5% |
| 05-2029 | 4527 | 5% |
| 05-2030 | 4618 | 5% |
| 05-2031 | 4903 | 5% |
| 05-2032 | 5006 | 5% |
| 05-2033 | 5106 | 5% |
| 05-2034 | 5208 | 5% |
| 05-2035 | 5514 | 5% |
with a 5-year average of $5610 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 6% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 05-2026 | 5600 |
| 05-2027 | 5438 |
| 05-2028 | 5420 |
| 05-2029 | 5631 |
| 05-2030 | 6091 |
| 05-2031 | 6274 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 43 |
| Days Inventory | 8 |
| Days Payables | 50 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2026 | 5879 | 736 | 2917 | (155) | 2382 |
| 2027 | 11719 | 1502 | 5950 | 390 | 3877 |
| 2028 | 11846 | 1537 | 6086 | 285 | 3937 |
| 2029 | 12209 | 1573 | 6231 | 61 | 4344 |
| 2030 | 12801 | 1605 | 6356 | 240 | 4601 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 284.40 | -23.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 288.47 | -21.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 348.79 | -5.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 338.78 | -8.2% |
Is FedEx Corp (FDX) a buy or a sell? FedEx Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, FedEx Corp (FDX) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -21.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $369.23.