As of May 22, 2025, First Derivatives PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.00, this represents a potential upside of -32.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -44.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -32.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.3% - 9.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $249 million in 02-2024 to $228 million by 02-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately -0.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 02-2024 | 249 | 16% |
| 02-2025 | 167 | -33% |
| 02-2026 | 170 | 2% |
| 02-2027 | 190 | 11% |
| 02-2028 | 196 | 3% |
| 02-2029 | 200 | 2% |
| 02-2030 | 204 | 2% |
| 02-2031 | 208 | 2% |
| 02-2032 | 219 | 5% |
| 02-2033 | 223 | 2% |
| 02-2034 | 228 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -5% in 02-2024 to 9% by 02-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 02-2024 | (13) | -5% |
| 02-2025 | (0) | 0% |
| 02-2026 | 3 | 2% |
| 02-2027 | 7 | 4% |
| 02-2028 | 11 | 5% |
| 02-2029 | 14 | 7% |
| 02-2030 | 15 | 7% |
| 02-2031 | 16 | 8% |
| 02-2032 | 18 | 8% |
| 02-2033 | 19 | 8% |
| 02-2034 | 20 | 9% |
with a 5-year average of $21 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 8% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 02-2025 | 21 |
| 02-2026 | 21 |
| 02-2027 | 19 |
| 02-2028 | 17 |
| 02-2029 | 15 |
| 02-2030 | 16 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 88 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 26 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 12 | (0) | 7 | (6) | 11 |
| 2026 | 29 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 12 |
| 2027 | 33 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 12 |
| 2028 | 36 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 14 |
| 2029 | 39 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 16 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -44.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -32.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 953.29 | +Inf% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1142.16 | +Inf% |
Is First Derivatives PLC (FDP.L) a buy or a sell? First Derivatives PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, First Derivatives PLC (FDP.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -32.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.00.