As of May 23, 2025, First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $7.26 to $22.61 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $22.61 | +32.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $19.09 | +11.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $13.07 | -23.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $11.39 | -33.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $7.26 | -57.5% |
Is First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCR.UN.TO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $17.09, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.84 | 0.94 |
| Cost of equity | 7.5% | 9.9% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 6.3% |
| Tax rate | 5.0% | 5.7% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.5% | 7.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $19 | $8,031M | 76.9% |
| 10-Year Growth | $23 | $8,779M | 59.7% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $15 | $7,165M | 74.1% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $19 | $8,024M | 55.9% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $358M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.8% - 5.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $4,577M - $6,458M |
| Net Debt | $3,976M |
| Equity Value | $601M - $2,482M |
| Outstanding Shares | 212M |
| Fair Value | $3 - $12 |
| Selected Fair Value | $7.26 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $3630M |
| Enterprise Value | $7606M |
| Trailing P/E | 16.92 |
| Forward P/E | 16.78 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 14.65 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 496.45% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -0.61% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.11 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $6.78 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $4.77 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $2.61 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $1.71 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.73 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $16.60 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust's weighted average intrinsic value is $16.60, which is approximately 2.8% below the current market price of $17.09.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.