As of May 24, 2025, French Connection Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $29.55, this represents a potential upside of -634.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -850.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -634.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.0% - 8.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $72 million in 01-2021 to $103 million by 01-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2021 | 72 | 40% |
| 01-2022 | 76 | 7% |
| 01-2023 | 78 | 2% |
| 01-2024 | 83 | 7% |
| 01-2025 | 85 | 2% |
| 01-2026 | 86 | 2% |
| 01-2027 | 88 | 2% |
| 01-2028 | 90 | 3% |
| 01-2029 | 92 | 2% |
| 01-2030 | 96 | 4% |
| 01-2031 | 103 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -28% in 01-2021 to -6% by 01-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2021 | (20) | -28% |
| 01-2022 | (15) | -19% |
| 01-2023 | (13) | -16% |
| 01-2024 | (11) | -14% |
| 01-2025 | (9) | -11% |
| 01-2026 | (8) | -9% |
| 01-2027 | (7) | -8% |
| 01-2028 | (7) | -8% |
| 01-2029 | (7) | -7% |
| 01-2030 | (7) | -7% |
| 01-2031 | (7) | -6% |
with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2022 | 1 |
| 01-2023 | 1 |
| 01-2024 | 1 |
| 01-2025 | 1 |
| 01-2026 | 1 |
| 01-2027 | 1 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 51 |
| Days Inventory | 143 |
| Days Payables | 63 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2022 | (8) | (2) | 0 | (1) | (5) |
| 2023 | (14) | (3) | 1 | 1 | (12) |
| 2024 | (12) | (3) | 1 | 1 | (11) |
| 2025 | (10) | (2) | 1 | (1) | (7) |
| 2026 | (7) | (2) | 1 | 0 | (6) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -850.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -634.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is French Connection Group PLC (FCCN.L) a buy or a sell? French Connection Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, French Connection Group PLC (FCCN.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -634.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $29.55.