As of May 25, 2025, Volution Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $279.92 to $467.83 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $467.83 | -23.8% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $371.44 | -39.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $373.57 | -39.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $279.92 | -54.4% |
| Earnings Power Value | $304.79 | -50.4% |
Is Volution Group PLC (FAN.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $614.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Volution Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.73 | 0.89 |
| Cost of equity | 8.3% | 11.2% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.7% |
| Tax rate | 24.4% | 26.9% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| After-tax WACC | 8.0% | 10.7% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $371 | $930M | 76.8% |
| 10-Year Growth | $468 | $1,124M | 59.4% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $333 | $854M | 74.7% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $431 | $1,050M | 56.5% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $73M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.7% - 8.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $681M - $912M |
| Net Debt | $186M |
| Equity Value | $496M - $727M |
| Outstanding Shares | 2M |
| Fair Value | $247 - $362 |
| Selected Fair Value | $304.79 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1231M |
| Enterprise Value | $1417M |
| Trailing P/E | 31.01 |
| Forward P/E | 23.69 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 8.70 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 144.72% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 25.92% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.07 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $140.35 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $92.86 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $74.71 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $41.99 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $30.48 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $380.39 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Volution Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $380.39, which is approximately 38.0% below the current market price of $614.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Volution Group PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.