As of June 17, 2025, Fade Gida Yatirim Sanayi Ticaret AS has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.86 per share. With the current market price at $6.69, this represents a potential upside of -87.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.73 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.86 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -89.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -87.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 28.6% - 32.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $63 million in 12-2020 to $122 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 63 | 9% |
| 12-2021 | 53 | -16% |
| 12-2022 | 60 | 14% |
| 12-2023 | 67 | 11% |
| 12-2024 | 73 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 80 | 10% |
| 12-2026 | 87 | 9% |
| 12-2027 | 94 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 103 | 10% |
| 12-2029 | 112 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 122 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 24% in 12-2020 to 36% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 15 | 24% |
| 12-2021 | 14 | 26% |
| 12-2022 | 17 | 28% |
| 12-2023 | 20 | 30% |
| 12-2024 | 23 | 32% |
| 12-2025 | 27 | 34% |
| 12-2026 | 30 | 34% |
| 12-2027 | 33 | 35% |
| 12-2028 | 36 | 35% |
| 12-2029 | 40 | 36% |
| 12-2030 | 44 | 36% |
with a 5-year average of $4 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 9% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 5 |
| 12-2022 | 6 |
| 12-2023 | 5 |
| 12-2024 | 6 |
| 12-2025 | 6 |
| 12-2026 | 7 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 44 |
| Days Inventory | 239 |
| Days Payables | 63 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2021 | 17 | 3 | 4 | (24) | 35 |
| 2022 | 28 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 9 |
| 2023 | 31 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
| 2024 | 36 | 6 | 7 | (3) | 26 |
| 2025 | 41 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.73 | -89.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.86 | -87.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1.69 | -74.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1.28 | -80.9% |
Is Fade Gida Yatirim Sanayi Ticaret AS (FADE.IS) a buy or a sell? Fade Gida Yatirim Sanayi Ticaret AS is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Fade Gida Yatirim Sanayi Ticaret AS (FADE.IS) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -87.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $6.69.