As of June 8, 2025, Hellenic Exchanges Athens Stock Exchange SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $6.96 per share. With the current market price at $6.09, this represents a potential upside of 14.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $5.97 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $6.96 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -2.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 14.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.1% - 10.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $52 million in 12-2024 to $114 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 52 | 15% |
| 12-2025 | 61 | 17% |
| 12-2026 | 67 | 9% |
| 12-2027 | 67 | 1% |
| 12-2028 | 75 | 11% |
| 12-2029 | 85 | 13% |
| 12-2030 | 91 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 99 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 104 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 109 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 114 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 33% in 12-2024 to 34% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 17 | 33% |
| 12-2025 | 21 | 34% |
| 12-2026 | 22 | 34% |
| 12-2027 | 23 | 34% |
| 12-2028 | 25 | 34% |
| 12-2029 | 28 | 34% |
| 12-2030 | 31 | 34% |
| 12-2031 | 33 | 34% |
| 12-2032 | 35 | 34% |
| 12-2033 | 37 | 34% |
| 12-2034 | 39 | 34% |
with a 5-year average of $4 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 10% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 5 |
| 12-2026 | 5 |
| 12-2027 | 6 |
| 12-2028 | 7 |
| 12-2029 | 7 |
| 12-2030 | 8 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 28 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 2026 | 30 | 6 | 7 | (0) | 18 |
| 2027 | 31 | 6 | 7 | (0) | 19 |
| 2028 | 35 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 19 |
| 2029 | 39 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 22 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 5.97 | -2.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 6.96 | 14.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 6.49 | 6.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 7.40 | 21.6% |
Is Hellenic Exchanges Athens Stock Exchange SA (EXAE.AT) a buy or a sell? Hellenic Exchanges Athens Stock Exchange SA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Hellenic Exchanges Athens Stock Exchange SA (EXAE.AT) appears to be moderately undervalued with upside potential of 14.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a buy at the current market price of $6.09.