As of June 21, 2025, Exail Technologies has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $85.31 per share. With the current market price at $88.10, this represents a potential upside of -3.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $7.28 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $85.31 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -91.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -3.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 8.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $373 million in 12-2024 to $1146 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 373 | 16% |
| 12-2025 | 461 | 24% |
| 12-2026 | 549 | 19% |
| 12-2027 | 640 | 17% |
| 12-2028 | 727 | 14% |
| 12-2029 | 798 | 10% |
| 12-2030 | 867 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 936 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 1001 | 7% |
| 12-2033 | 1071 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 1146 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -1% in 12-2024 to 7% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (5) | -1% |
| 12-2025 | (1) | 0% |
| 12-2026 | 8 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 20 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 33 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 48 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 55 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 61 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 68 | 7% |
| 12-2033 | 76 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 84 | 7% |
with a 5-year average of $25 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 12% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 33 |
| 12-2026 | 42 |
| 12-2027 | 54 |
| 12-2028 | 65 |
| 12-2029 | 78 |
| 12-2030 | 88 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 187 |
| Days Inventory | 228 |
| Days Payables | 161 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 65 | (0) | 57 | 115 | (106) |
| 2026 | 92 | 2 | 67 | (3) | 25 |
| 2027 | 126 | 6 | 79 | 46 | (5) |
| 2028 | 161 | 9 | 89 | 61 | 1 |
| 2029 | 197 | 14 | 98 | 18 | 67 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 7.28 | -91.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 85.31 | -3.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 38.59 | -56.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 68.36 | -22.4% |
Is Exail Technologies (EXA.PA) a buy or a sell? Exail Technologies is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Exail Technologies (EXA.PA) appears to be fairly valued with upside potential of -3.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold at the current market price of $88.10.