As of June 13, 2025, Evolution Gaming Group AB (publ)'s estimated intrinsic value ranges from $866.37 to $1816.39 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $1816.39 | +168.4% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $1408.20 | +108.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $1201.10 | +77.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $866.37 | +28.0% |
| Earnings Power Value | $1096.71 | +62.0% |
Is Evolution Gaming Group AB (publ) (EVO.ST) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $676.80, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Evolution Gaming Group AB (publ)'s intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.68 | 0.83 |
| Cost of equity | 6.0% | 8.6% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 7.0% |
| Tax rate | 6.7% | 6.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.0% | 8.6% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $128 | $25,327M | 74.3% |
| 10-Year Growth | $165 | $32,919M | 58.4% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $94 | $18,263M | 64.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $129 | $25,588M | 46.5% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $1,374M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.6% - 6.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $16,039M - $23,028M |
| Net Debt | $(865)M |
| Equity Value | $16,904M - $23,893M |
| Outstanding Shares | 204M |
| Fair Value | $83 - $117 |
| Selected Fair Value | $1096.71 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $138379M |
| Enterprise Value | $128868M |
| Trailing P/E | 10.24 |
| Forward P/E | 9.02 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.65 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 461.31% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 64.65% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.01 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $544.92 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $352.05 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $240.22 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $129.96 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $109.67 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $1376.81 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Evolution Gaming Group AB (publ)'s weighted average intrinsic value is $1376.81, which is approximately 103.4% above the current market price of $676.80.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Evolution Gaming Group AB (publ) is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.