As of May 29, 2025, EVI Industries Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $6.67 per share. With the current market price at $18.02, this represents a potential upside of -63.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $3.53 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $6.67 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -80.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -63.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 9.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $354 million in 06-2024 to $620 million by 06-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2024 | 354 | 0% |
| 06-2025 | 376 | 6% |
| 06-2026 | 406 | 8% |
| 06-2027 | 444 | 9% |
| 06-2028 | 465 | 5% |
| 06-2029 | 506 | 9% |
| 06-2030 | 518 | 2% |
| 06-2031 | 529 | 2% |
| 06-2032 | 574 | 8% |
| 06-2033 | 595 | 4% |
| 06-2034 | 620 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 2% in 06-2024 to 2% by 06-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2024 | 6 | 2% |
| 06-2025 | 7 | 2% |
| 06-2026 | 7 | 2% |
| 06-2027 | 8 | 2% |
| 06-2028 | 8 | 2% |
| 06-2029 | 9 | 2% |
| 06-2030 | 9 | 2% |
| 06-2031 | 9 | 2% |
| 06-2032 | 10 | 2% |
| 06-2033 | 10 | 2% |
| 06-2034 | 11 | 2% |
with a 5-year average of $4 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 06-2025 | 4 |
| 06-2026 | 5 |
| 06-2027 | 5 |
| 06-2028 | 5 |
| 06-2029 | 6 |
| 06-2030 | 6 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 52 |
| Days Inventory | 83 |
| Days Payables | 45 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2025 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | (1) |
| 2026 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 2027 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 2028 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 2029 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 3.53 | -80.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 6.67 | -63.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 8.21 | -54.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 9.39 | -47.9% |
Is EVI Industries Inc (EVI) a buy or a sell? EVI Industries Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, EVI Industries Inc (EVI) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -63.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $18.02.